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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 1

New Orleans Saints 10 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 2-J.Winston pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [52-R.Gary].

The Three Options

GO +4.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.42 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.58 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model