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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 41

New Orleans Saints 10 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:08) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to GB 29 for 12 yards (23-J.Alexander; 26-D.Savage).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.79 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model