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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 5

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 8-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 5, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP