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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 6

New York Giants 7 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(6:30) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 19-K.Golladay (23-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 6, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model