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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 46

New York Giants 7 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(10:05) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones scrambles up the middle to DEN 38 for 8 yards (31-J.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.83 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model