4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 18

Denver Broncos 17 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.90 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP