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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 49

Denver Broncos 3 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:48) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to NYG 35 for 14 yards (23-L.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.30 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model