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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 10

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Cleveland Browns 8

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.56 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 10, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP