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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 15

Cleveland Browns 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(9:18) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to KC 10 for 5 yards (21-M.Hughes).

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.94 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model