4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 25

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Cleveland Browns 22

What Actually Happened

(:36) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.37 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model