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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 45

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Cleveland Browns 22

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 5-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to CLE 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-26-C.Lammons.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.67 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model