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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 16, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model