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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 25

Arizona Cardinals 38 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.96 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model