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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 49

Tennessee Titans 13 – Arizona Cardinals 38

What Actually Happened

(:48) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 43 for -8 yards (55-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +4.05 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth +0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.89 EP