Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 17 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 31 – Tennessee Titans 13

(8:32) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.82 EP
74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model