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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 29

Tennessee Titans 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(7:13) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to KC 26 for 3 yards (32-T.Mathieu; 53-A.Hitchens).

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.10 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model