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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 35

What Actually Happened

(1:28) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 18 for -17 yards (55-F.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.35 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -2.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model