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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 44

Kansas City Chiefs 35 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.75 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.65 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model