Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 79

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

(10:09) 2-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to TEN 33, Center-41-J.Winchester. 14-K.Raymond to TEN 42 for 9 yards (41-J.Winchester).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.76 EP
61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model