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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to KC 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-53-D.Bates.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.65 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model