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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 12

Tennessee Titans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 7-G.Joseph 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.41 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP