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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right guard to BAL 45 for no gain (51-D.Long).

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.82 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model