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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 21

Baltimore Ravens 12 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 80-M.Boykin.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +3.90 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.73 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.29 EP