Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 79

Tennessee Titans 28 – Baltimore Ravens 12

(2:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to BAL 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.37 EP
52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model