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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 44

Tennessee Titans 28 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(14:56) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 32 yards to BAL 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.94 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP