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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 18

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to TEN 18 for no gain (58-H.Landry).

The Three Options

GO +3.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.01 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model