Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 60

Tennessee Titans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:54) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback. PENALTY on TEN-29-D.Cruikshank, Illegal Touch Kick, 0 yards, enforced at BAL 20. Penalty causes Touchback

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.64 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model