Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 14 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:22) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback. PENALTY on BAL-31-B.Trawick, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.63 EP
70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model