4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 6-J.Scott punts 46 yards to SEA 32, Center-43-H.Bradley. 83-D.Moore to SEA 42 for 10 yards (42-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.06 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 78, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 35, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP