Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

(8:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to GB 5, Center-69-T.Ott. 32-T.Ervin to GB 11 for 6 yards (18-J.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.04 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model