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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 64

Seattle Seahawks 23 – Green Bay Packers 28

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.84 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 64, worth -2.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model