Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 28 – Seattle Seahawks 17

(14:12) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to SEA 21, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-43-H.Bradley.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.91 EP
51% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model