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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 32

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.04 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model