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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 41

Tennessee Titans 14 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 6-B.Kern punts 30 yards to NE 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.63 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP