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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 18

New England Patriots 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.24 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model