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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 3

New England Patriots 10 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 2-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.96 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 3, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP