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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 53

New England Patriots 10 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 7-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to TEN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-R.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.85 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.83 EP