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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 17

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (75-V.Curry), Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.26 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 17, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model