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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 24

Philadelphia Eagles 9 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(6:24) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCown pass incomplete short left to 26-M.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.42 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model