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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 28

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.80 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model