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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to PHI 22, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.81 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 24, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model