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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 20 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to NO 15, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.14 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model