Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 10 – Minnesota Vikings 20

(1:50) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to MIN 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 34 for 10 yards (7-T.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.07 EP
60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model