Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 10 – Minnesota Vikings 13

(10:48) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to MIN 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.40 EP
59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model