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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 2-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to NO 13, Center-58-A.Cutting. 11-D.Harris to NO 30 for 17 yards (30-C.Ham).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.87 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 22, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model