Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 81

Buffalo Bills 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to HOU 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-D.Carter to HOU 36 for 11 yards (33-S.Neal, 57-L.Alexander). Punt Hangtime: 5.13s

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.05 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model