Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 42

Houston Texans 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(7:09) 9-B.Anger punts 32 yards to BUF 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts. Punt Hangtime: 4.38s

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.23 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -1.86 EP

KICK +0.03 EP

52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
48% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model