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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 16 at the 20

Buffalo Bills 13 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 4-S.Hauschka 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.92 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model