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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 40

Buffalo Bills 13 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Punt Hangtime: 4.13s

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.73 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP