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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 22

Buffalo Bills 10 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(:09) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +3.18 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model